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	<title>Friedman Facts.com &#187; john cochrane</title>
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	<description>The truth about Milton Friedman and free markets</description>
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		<title>The Fatal Conceit is alive and kicking</title>
		<link>http://www.friedmanfacts.com/economy/the-fatal-conceit-is-alive-and-well/</link>
		<comments>http://www.friedmanfacts.com/economy/the-fatal-conceit-is-alive-and-well/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 05 Jan 2009 18:52:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>rocket</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[f.a. hayek]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[john cochrane]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[milton friedman]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.friedmanfacts.com/?p=317</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>Austrian economist F.A. Hayek had a term for the belief that knowledgeable, sophisticated people could plan for an ideal outcome. He called it the &#8220;fatal conceit,&#8221; and even wrote <a href="http://books.google.com/books?id=ry0HTIbEGPEC&#38;dq=fatal+conceit&#38;printsec=frontcover&#38;source=bn&#38;hl=en&#38;sa=X&#38;oi=book_result&#38;resnum=4&#38;ct=result">an entire book on the subject</a>. His thesis was that&#8230; <a href="http://www.friedmanfacts.com/economy/the-fatal-conceit-is-alive-and-well/" class="read_more">[Read the rest]</a></p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Austrian economist F.A. Hayek had a term for the belief that knowledgeable, sophisticated people could plan for an ideal outcome. He called it the &#8220;fatal conceit,&#8221; and even wrote <a href="http://books.google.com/books?id=ry0HTIbEGPEC&amp;dq=fatal+conceit&amp;printsec=frontcover&amp;source=bn&amp;hl=en&amp;sa=X&amp;oi=book_result&amp;resnum=4&amp;ct=result">an entire book on the subject</a>. His thesis was that such planning is impossible given the limited knowledge of a group of people, and that the free market is the most efficient means of production&#8211;something that Milton Friedman agreed with wholeheartedly.</p>
<p>It shouldn&#8217;t come as any surprise that policy makers and pundits are now falling right into the trappings of the belief that &#8220;if only the government were to [fill in the blank].&#8221;</p>
<p><a href="http://www.friedmanfacts.com/author/catallaxia/">catallaxia</a> recently sent me <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&amp;sid=a3GVhIHGyWRM">an article from Bloomberg.com</a>, which discusses the Chicago School&#8217;s reaction to the recent spurt in government intervention in the economy. It&#8217;s worth a read in its entirety, but I want to highlight a particular section that demonstrates a small degree of the &#8220;fatal conceit:&#8221;</p>
<blockquote><p><a href="http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Robert+Lucas&amp;site=wnews&amp;client=wnews&amp;proxystylesheet=wnews&amp;output=xml_no_dtd&amp;ie=UTF-8&amp;oe=UTF-8&amp;filter=p&amp;getfields=wnnis&amp;sort=date:D:S:d1" target="_blank">Robert Lucas</a>, a Chicago economist who won a Nobel in 1995 for a theory that argued against governments trying to fine-tune consumer demand, says deregulation may have gone too far.</p>
<p>Depression-era laws that separated commercial and investment banks helped depositors decide if they wanted secure accounts or riskier investments. Today, without these distinctions, people can&#8217;t be sure if their investments, or those of their customers, are safe.</p>
<p>&#8220;I&#8217;m changing my views on bank regulation every week,&#8221; Lucas, 71, says. &#8220;It was an area I saw as under control. Now I don&#8217;t believe that.&#8221; </p></blockquote>
<p>Far be it for me to criticize a Nobel laureate, however, I would love to ask Mr. Lucas what kind of investments he believes are &#8220;safe.&#8221; Just how can government go about ensuring (and insuring) &#8220;safe&#8221; investments? A CD is relatively safe, but the depositor is taking a risk whenever he or she invests money anywhere&#8211;it&#8217;s how the game is played.</p>
<p>An investment will always be a risk&#8211;you have to take a risk to succeed, and sometimes you fail. That&#8217;s exactly what&#8217;s NOT being allowed to happen now with banks, financial firms, automobile manufacturers and even <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/02/business/02steel.html">steel mills</a> and <a href="http://www.norwichbulletin.com/entertainment/x512372511/NAC-Corner-Arts-overlooked-as-key-element-to-economic-prosperity">artists</a>. </p>
<p>And as to Lucas&#8217;s comment that he believed that regulation was &#8220;under control&#8221; I&#8217;ll only say that a vibrant, wealth-creating economy should never be &#8220;under control.&#8221; It should always be changing, evolving and recreating itself. Again, the cycle of never-ending bailouts appear to be perpetuating the bad at the expense of the good that we may never know.</p>
<p>(To read up regulation and the myth of deregulation in the past few years, take a look at <a href="http://townhall.com/columnists/JohnStossel/2008/10/15/the_reregulation_mantra">John Stossel&#8217;s piece here</a>.)</p>
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